This paper compares three prognostic algorithms applied to the same data recorded during the failure of a solder joint in ball grid array component attached to a printed circuit board. The objective is to expand on the relative strengths and weaknesses of each proposed algorithm. Emphasis will be placed on highlighting differences in underlying assumptions required for each algorithm, details of remaining useful life calculations, and methods of uncertainty quantification. Metrics tailored specifically for prognostic health monitoring (PHM) are presented to characterize the performance of predictions. The relative merits of PHM algorithms based on a Kalman filter, extended Kalman filter, and a particle filter all demonstrated on the same data set will be discussed. The paper concludes by discussing which algorithm performs best given the information available about the system being monitored.
Issue Section:
Research Papers
References
1.
Constable
, J.
, and Lizzul
, C.
, 1995
, “An Investigation of Solder Joint Fatigue Using Electrical Resistance Spectroscopy
,” IEEE Trans. Comp. Packag. Manuf. Technol.
, 18
(1
), pp. 142
–152
.10.1109/95.3707482.
Constable
, J.
, 1994
, “Use of Interconnect Resistance as a Reliability Tool
,” Electronic Components and Technology Conference, 44th Electronic Components and Technology Conference
, Washington, DC, May, 1–4, pp. 450–457.10.1109/ECTC.1994.3675533.
Lall
, P.
, Lowe
, R.
, and Goebel
, K.
, 2009
, “Resistance Spectroscopy-Based Condition Monitoring for Prognostication of High Reliability Electronics Under Shock-Impact
,” 59th Electronic Components and Technology Conference
(ECTC 2009
), San Diego, CA
, May 26–29, pp. 1245
–1255
.10.1109/ECTC.2009.50741714.
Lall
, P.
, Lowe
, R.
, and Suhling
, J.
, 2009
, “Prognostication Based on Resistance-Spectroscopy for High Reliability Electronics Under Shock-Impact
,” ASME
Paper No. IMECE2009-13351.10.1115/IMECE2009-133515.
Lall
, P.
, Lowe
, R.
, Goebel
, K.
, and Suhling
, J.
, 2009
, “Leading-Indicators Based on Impedance Spectroscopy for Prognostication of Electronics Under Shock and Vibration Loads
,” ASME
InterPACK Conference, San Francisco, CA, Jul. 19–23, pp. 1
–12
.10.1115/InterPACK2009-8930810.1115/IMECE2009-133516.
Lall
, P.
, Lowe
, R.
, Goebel
, K.
, and Suhling
, J.
, 2009
, “Prognostication for Impending Failure in Leadfree Electronics Subjected to Shock and Vibration Using Resistance Spectroscopy
,” International Symposium on Microelectronics
(IMAPS), San Jose, CA, Nov. 1–5, pp. 195–202.7.
Lall
, P.
, Lowe
, R.
, and Goebel
, K.
, 2012
, “Prognostication of Accrued Damage in Board Assemblies Under Thermal and Mechanical Stresses
,” IEEE Electronic Components and Technology Conference
(ECTC
), San Diego, CA, May 29–June 1, pp. 1475–1487.10.1109/ECTC.2012.62490318.
Lall
, P.
, Lowe
, R.
, and Goebel
, K.
, 2010
, “Prognostics Using Kalman-Filter Models and Metrics for Risk Assessment in BGAs Under Shock and Vibration Loads
,” 60th Electronic Components and Technology Conference
(ECTC
), Las Vegas, NV, June 1–4, pp. 889–901.10.1109/ECTC.2010.54906919.
Lall
, P.
, Lowe
, R.
, and Goebel
, K.
, 2010
, “Use of Prognostics in Risk-Based Decision Making for BGAs Under Shock and Vibration Loads
,” Thermal and Thermomechanical Phenomena in Electronics Systems (ITherm
), Las Vegas, NV, June 2–5.10.1109/ITHERM.2010.550128410.
Swanson
, D.
, 2001
, “A General Prognostic Tracking Algorithm for Predictive Maintenance
,” IEEE Aerospace Conference
, Big Sky, MT, Mar. 10–17, Vol. 6, pp. 2971–2977.10.1109/AERO.2001.93131711.
Lall
, P.
, Lowe
, R.
, and Goebel
, K.
, 2012
, “Extended Kalman Filter Models and Resistance Spectroscopy for Prognostication and Health Monitoring of Leadfree Electronics Under Vibration
,” IEEE Trans. Reliability
, 61
(4), pp. 858–871.10.1109/TR.2012.222069812.
Daigle
, M.
, and Goebel
, K.
, 2009
, “Model-Based Prognostics With Fixed-Lag Particle Filters
,” Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society
, San Diego, CA, Sept. 27–Oct. 1, Paper No. 37, available at: http://www.phmsociety.org/node/6613.
Goebel
, K.
, Saha
, B.
, Saxena
, A.
, Celaya
, J.
, and Christophersen
, J.
, 2008
, “Prognostics in Battery Health Management
,” IEEE Instrum. Meas. Mag.
, 11
(4
), pp. 33
–40
.10.1109/MIM.2008.457926914.
Lall
, P.
, Lowe
, R.
, and Goebel
, K.
, 2011
, “Particle Filter Models and Phase Sensitive Detection for Prognostication and Health Monitoring of Leadfree Electronics Under Shock and Vibration
,” IEEE 61st Electronic Components and Technology Conference
(ECTC
), Lake Buena Vista, FL, May 31–June 3, pp. 1097–1109.10.1109/ECTC.2011.589864715.
Orchard
, M.
, and Vachtsevanos
, G.
, 2009
, “A Particle-Filtering Approach for On-Line Fault Diagnosis and Failure Prognosis
,” Trans. Inst. Meas. Control
, 31
(3–4
), pp. 221
–246
.10.1177/014233120809202616.
Pradeep
, L.
, Kewal
, P.
, Ryan
, L.
, Mark
, S.
, Jim
, B.
, Dave
, G.
, and Randall
, M.
, 2012
, “Modeling and Reliability Characterization of Area-Array Electronics Subjected to High-G Mechanical Shock Up to 50,000g
,” IEEE 62nd Electronic Components and Technology Conference
(ECTC
), San Diego, CA, May 29–June 1, pp. 1194–1204.10.1109/ECTC.2012.624898817.
Lall
, P.
, Sakalaukus
, P.
, Lowe
, R.
, and Goebel
, K.
, 2012
, “Leading Indicators for Prognostic Health Management of Electrical Connectors Subjected to Random Vibration
,” 13th IEEEE Thermal and Thermomechanical Phenomena in Electronics Systems (ITherm
), San Diego, CA, May 30–June 1, pp. 632–638.10.1109/ITHERM.2012.623148818.
Saxena
, A.
, Celaya
, J.
, Saha
, B.
, Saha
, S.
, and Goebel
, K.
, 2009
, “On Applying the Prognostics Performance Metrics
,” Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society
, San Diego, CA
, Sept. 27–Oct. 1, Paper No. 39, available at: http://www.phmsociety.org/node/15019.
Saha
, B.
, and Goebel
, K.
, 2011
, “Model Adaptation for Prognostics in a Particle Filtering Framework
,” Int. J. Prog. Health Manage., 2
(1), p. 006, available at: http://www.phmsociety.org/node/38520.
Zarchan
, P.
, and Musoff
, H.
, 2005
, Fundamentals of Kalman Filtering: A Practical Approach (Astronautics and Aeronautics), 2nd ed., American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Reston, VA.Copyright © 2014 by ASME
You do not currently have access to this content.
