A new procedure is developed to find the probabilities of extremely high amplification factors in mistuned bladed disk vibration levels, typical of events which occur rarely. While a rough estimate can be made by curve-fitting the distribution function generated in a Monte Carlo simulation, the procedure presented here can determine a much more accurate upper bound and the probabilities of amplification factors near to that bound. The procedure comprises an optimization analysis based on the conjugate gradient method and a stochastic simulation using the importance sampling method. Two examples are provided to illustrate the efficiency of the procedure, which can be 2 or 3 orders of magnitude more efficient than Monte Carlo simulations.

Issue Section:
Gas Turbines: Structures and Dynamics
Keywords:
blades, conjugate gradient methods, curve fitting, gas turbines, Monte Carlo methods, vibration measurement
Topics:
Probability, Simulation, Blades, Optimization, Vibration, Entropy, Gradient methods, Curve fitting
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