The robust estimation of wind turbine design loads for service lifetimes of 30 to 50 years that are based on limited field measurements is a challenging problem. Estimating the long-term load distribution involves the integration of conditional distributions of extreme loads over the mean wind speed and turbulence intensity distributions. However, the accuracy of the statistical extrapolation can be sensitive to both model and sampling errors. Using measured inflow and structural data from the Long Term Inflow and Structural Test (LIST) program, this paper presents a comparative assessment of extreme loads using three distributions: namely, the Gumbel, Weibull and Generalized Extreme Value distributions. The paper uses L-moments, in place of traditional product moments, with the purpose of reducing the sampling error. The paper discusses the effects of modeling and sampling errors and highlights the practical limitations of extreme value theory.
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November 2003
Technical Papers
Probabilistic Analysis of LIST Data for the Estimation of Extreme Design Loads for Wind Turbine Components*†
M. D. Pandey,
M. D. Pandey
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1 Canada
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H. J. Sutherland
H. J. Sutherland
Wind Energy Technology Department, Sandia National Laboratories,(‡) Albuquerque, NM 87185-0708 USA
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M. D. Pandey
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1 Canada
H. J. Sutherland
Wind Energy Technology Department, Sandia National Laboratories,(‡) Albuquerque, NM 87185-0708 USA
Contributed by the Solar Energy Division of THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERS for publication in the ASME JOURNAL OF SOLAR ENERGY ENGINEERING. Manuscript received by the ASME Solar Energy Division, February 27, 2003; final revision, July 15, 2003. Associate Editor: D. Berg.
J. Sol. Energy Eng. Nov 2003, 125(4): 531-540 (10 pages)
Published Online: November 26, 2003
Article history
Received:
February 27, 2003
Revised:
July 15, 2003
Online:
November 26, 2003
Citation
Pandey, M. D., and Sutherland, H. J. (November 26, 2003). "Probabilistic Analysis of LIST Data for the Estimation of Extreme Design Loads for Wind Turbine Components." ASME. J. Sol. Energy Eng. November 2003; 125(4): 531–540. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.1626128
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